WORLD SYSTEM BRIEF
FLOWS · BOTTLENECKS · LEVERAGE
SYSTEM DELTA
Δ 1
SUBSTITUTABILITY COMMITMENT
THE SPARE ROUTE BECOMES AN ASSET.
Phase 2 changes no physical LNG flow today. It commits capital to future Pacific export capacity and increases the set of routes available to Canadian gas.
SYSTEM MAP · DOMINANT MECHANISM
PACIFIC LNG OPTIONALITY
Western Canadian gas
→
LNG Canada
┄▷
Pacific route
┄▷
Asian LNG market
Future Pacific LNG capacity moved from option to commitment. Current physical flow is unchanged.
CHAIN OF THE DAY
Western Canadian gas→Liquefaction→Pacific shipping→Asian LNG market
The route is not open. The capacity is now committed.
NOISE CHECK
East-West recoveryEVIDENCE UPDATE / NO NEW Δ
Oil-price movementNO INDEPENDENT Δ
Small gas turbines for AI data centresNEW EVIDENCE / EXISTING PROCESS
China may allow Nvidia purchasesDEVELOPING / EVIDENCE INSUFFICIENT
SYSTEM LEDGER
WSB-0002 · 2026-09-29
| OBJECT | ENTERING STATE | CURRENT STATE | MARK | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LNG Canada Phase 2 | pre-FID option | committed / FID taken | ↑ | CONFIRMED Δ |
| EU methane import rules | scheduled for 2027 | possible delay to 2028 | ? | DEVELOPING |
| COSCO → Zippel | acquisition pending | possible prohibition | ? | DEVELOPING |
| East-West Pipeline | recovering / partial | recovering / partial | ↗ | EVIDENCE UPDATE |
| Hormuz | persistent constraint | persistent constraint | → × | PERSISTENT |
| Gulf of Oman STS | large-scale adaptation; capacity-limited | large-scale adaptation; capacity-limited | → × | PERSISTENT |
| Nvidia → China | possible policy relaxation | possible policy relaxation | ? | DEVELOPING / PERSISTENT |
EVIDENCE
Evidence registry · source → claim → observation → assessment